I personally use this index every week and now so can you. Generally speaking when it is high expect rallies; low expect declines.
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While most people focus only on the Commercials, I have found it is very helpful to know what the Large Speculators are doing in the marketplace. These days, for the most part, the Large Speculators are commodity funds. I use this indicator to see when they are heavily long or short using the government supplied COT data. It is hard to see the nuances of their action in the raw data so I have created this unique proprietary index.
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When it is high they are fully invested and declines are not far away; when low they are heavily short, there is a rally coming. SmlSpec is short for Small Speculators This is a measure of public sentiment, as it represents small traders as defined by the CFTC.
I use this index to get a sense of what the public trader is doing, and look for times when the CFTC report shows they have more longs than shorts to set up shorts or vice versa. These guys are usually losers, so I want to do the opposite of what they do. This helps you understand just how much of the Open Interest the Commercials have; how intense their buying or selling has been. This takes it to another level; as we combine price, open interest and volume all into one measure of accumulation.
Stock traders have a disadvantage. To that end, I have created my Insider Accumulation Index. It works for stocks, as well as commodities. However, it has been developed primarily for stocks. I have tested and traded it on markets throughout the world. What you will be looking for, as you can see from the following example, is divergence between price action and the index.
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Apple Williams Insider Accumulation. After more than a decade of real time experience with that index, I developed a better formula and index to measure this part of market sentiment. If you ever used my old sentiment index, I m sure you will like this one better as it is more responsive with an enviable track record. It is now my favorite tool to visually show me advisors sentiment.
Sells come when the index shows too much bullishness and buys when low indicating no one is bullish. We provide this tool for most actively traded Stocks and Commodities Futures.
Microsoft Williams Sentiment Index. They have been used by traders throughout the world my books have been published in 10 languages. I have used many of these for over half of a century; they are time tested! Williams Ultimate Oscillator This tool combines three time periods, which you can vary if you choose, into one index. Now you can see the effect of short, intermediate and long-term influences in one oscillator. My version of it, fully explained in an Active Trader magazine article see link at end of section , can be applied to any market.
This will help you understand the actual VIX relationships better. This unique guide identifies trend changes for you. It compares favorably with expensive trend systems and strategies. It shows when tops and bottoms reversals should take place and what the trend should be. You are given a 3 month in advance projection of what price should do. Study the charts to see the power of this approach for yourself. The objective is to give us a sense of the intermediate term moves. I use this tool on daily charts. Bonds Williams Cycle Forecast. Most stocks and commodities do have seasonal influences.
Traders should learn to take advantage of these patterns. This is one of the only accurate seasonal indexes available to traders. Because all other seasonal studies run the numbers then curve fit them to the past! The seasonal pattern they show for includes data from , , , etc My True Seasonal uses only data known up to the current time and then is pushed forward on charts for the next year.
This tool is not just restricted to weekly data. You can use this indicator on daily bars as well. To draw a seasonal into the future, TradeStation needs enough bar spacing on the right side of the chart. To get the space required, right click on your chart. Select Format Window. Then change the Space to the Right to bars.
You need to make sure you have enough data to draw a reliable seasonal. The more data the better. Use symbol with your market symbol or if you want to use the front month, please include. Next, right click on your chart and select Format Symbol. In the settings tab, change the years back to a very high number so that TradeStation will give you all the data it has for your market. Something high, like 90 years will work well. That should be all you need to get the seasonal drawn on your chart. I ve looked at this every day since the mid s! I like this as a general measure of what is really happening in the stock market.
Is there anything more critical in trading than money management?
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In my opinion, no there is not. That's why I feel that it is paramount that you can quickly and easily determine how much money you may make or lose in a trade. Use this for your money management and position sizing.
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Managing your risk is so crucial for all traders. Let this tool do all the work for you. Using the trendline drawing tool, draw a trendline on your chart from any two price points. In the right panel, click on the "recalculate" button, and in a fraction of a second you'll have the dollar difference between those two points. Williams Dollar Risk - Sell Example. Has TradeStation ever kicked you out of your contract on first notice day?
You really need to know when that is coming, so you can either exit as you choose or roll into the next month correctly. I have a tool that will help you stay one step ahead.
The First Notice Date indicator shows the most active contract, and when its first notice date is. So, basically this tool shows you when to roll your positions into the next contract from the active one that's shown in the text. Refer to the next chart to see an example of this tool. Need assistance?
Please feel free to contact us. Disclaimer Our course s , products, indicators, and services should be used as learning aids. If you decide to invest or trade real money, all trading decisions are your own. You should therefore carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Hypothetical or actual performance results have limitations as the future is never like the past.
No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profit. We do our level best to teach you to trade but, as they say, results do vary. Larry Williams Setup Tools Here we have a basket of the tools I use in my trading These tools are the cornerstone of how I find what I call setup markets.